Heavy fighting erupted in western Tigray on August 1, 2026, shattering the fragile peace between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) that had held since the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement. The clashes near Shererina, close to the Sudanese border, mark the most serious breach yet of the accord and threaten to plunge the Horn of Africa nation back into full-scale civil war.

Both sides traded blame for the escalation. Tigrayan officials declared the arrival of "open war," accusing Ethiopian forces of launching an offensive to reclaim territory the TPLF controls. Federal authorities countered that TPLF units initiated the attack, pointing to the group's refusal to demobilize as stipulated in the peace agreement. Ethiopian Defense Forces reportedly clashed with Army 13, a unit bolstered by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces and the TEKEZA Militia, a federal-backed group originally formed to counter Tigrayan fighters in the western zone.

Villages on the Sudanese side of the Tekeze-Setit River reported hearing explosions as civilians began fleeing toward the border. The renewed violence follows months of deteriorating relations after the TPLF ousted the federally backed Tigray Interim Administration in May 2026, reinstalling its own leadership in Mekelle and ignoring the federal government's mandate to hold regional elections.

Pretoria Agreement Unravels

The Pretoria Peace Agreement, brokered by the African Union in 2022, was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough that ended a brutal two-year conflict that killed hundreds of thousands. Under its terms, the TPLF was to fully disarm within a month, ceding control of Tigray to the interim administration. Instead, the group retained most of its weaponry, citing "security concerns" and federal violations of the accord.

By February 2026, the TPLF had reasserted control over much of Tigray, forcing an alliance of convenience with local militias and displacing the interim government. The Council on Foreign Relations reported that the TPLF's refusal to demobilize created a parallel authority structure, effectively splitting governance in the region. The federal government, in turn, excluded Tigray from Ethiopia's national elections and maintained its classification of the TPLF as a terrorist organization, further poisoning prospects for reconciliation.

Regional and International Implications

The resurgence of hostilities carries risks beyond Ethiopia's borders. Sudan's Rapid Support Forces—already engaged in a devastating civil war—are reportedly providing support to federal-aligned militias in western Tigray, raising fears of the conflict spreading into broader regional instability. Eritrea, which backed Ethiopia's federal forces during the original Tigray War, has grown estranged from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed over his decision to make peace and his recent bellicose rhetoric demanding Ethiopian access to the Red Sea.

The African Union, which facilitated the Pretoria Agreement, has called for restraint but faces diminished leverage as both sides accuse each other of violating the ceasefire terms. International sanctions, which were lifted after the 2022 deal, have been threatened by Western governments if the fighting widens, though enforcement remains uncertain given U.S. preoccupation with the Trump administration's domestic priorities.

Analysts warn that a return to full-scale war would be catastrophic for Tigray's 7 million residents, many of whom still rely on humanitarian aid after the previous conflict devastated infrastructure and killed an estimated 600,000 people. The August 1 clashes suggest the Pretoria Agreement's mechanisms for dispute resolution have collapsed, leaving military force as the primary arbiter of territorial control.